UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez (9-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC) has been tapped the favorite over top contender Junior Dos Santos (12-1 MMA, 6-0 UFC).
Granted, the duo hasn't officially been booked for an upcoming card, though UFC president Dana White has targeted the heavyweight blockbuster for an October or November event, possibly UFC 136 in Houston.
But noted MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa has set a line of -150 for the champ Velasquez and +120 for challenger Dos Santos.
That means a $150 bet on Velasquez would earn you $100 in winnings. Conversely, a $100 bet on Dos Santos would get you $120 in winnings. Therefore, Oddessa is giving Velasquez an approximate 60 percent chance of winning; Velasquez has a 45 percent chance. (Due to the nature of the sports betting and the house's take, the numbers don't equal 100 percent.)
Oddessa said the line likely will continue to widen as the fall fight approaches.
"I saw a few sportsbooks open the first number on Saturday night," he told MMAjunkie "As a bettor, I would have liked to bet a reasonable-sized wager on Velasquez at -105, but limits were low.
"It's very likely Velasquez is at least -185 by fight night. The irony is everyone lined up to bet (Shane) Carwin over Dos Santos last weekend, and now they are zigzagging after a dominant performance against Carwin."
Dos Santos, of course, defeated Carwin in this past weekend's UFC 131 main event. The victory, which earned Dos Santos the title shot, came via lopsided scores of 30-27, 30-27 and 30-26 following a dominant first round that left his opponent bruised and bloodied.
But as impressive as Dos Santos was – and as durable as Carwin proved – Oddessa expects a sizable step up in competition against Velasquez.
"With all respect to Carwin, who is a top-five heavyweight in the UFC, Cain is not Shane," he said. "The differences in the wrestling and head movement and speed are so glaringly obvious to me that I can't in good conscience open Junior or anyone in MMA as a favorite over Cain – in the nutshell – because I like money."
